American Idol and the Black Keys

American Idol goes into this week with it's final twelve and so far the competition has been mildly exciting. Certain trends pop up from year to year and this season has so far brought undertalented guys, clueless song choices and beat boxing. Still, despite the lack of charisma from any of the performers there's time for someone...anyone...to start generating some excitement. Part of the fun of the show is to give opinion and guess the eliminations on the performers, so here's my shot at it in order of when I think they'll go:

1. Chris Sligh-This guy is really funny, in that geeky Dungeons and Dragons kind of way. Unlike most singers in this competition, he understands the meaning of lyrics and tries to say something. The problems for him are obscure song choices and a John Popperish stage presence. And being John Popper is not what you want to be right now. Unless speeding around carrying drugs and guns for no apparent reason is your thing. And I can't see this guy excelling at Diana Ross week.

2. Phil Stacey- Another guy leaves, this time mainly for cosmetic appearance. Stacey has a strong, soaring voice but he looks like Michael Stipe after a month long fast. Plus, his low range isn't that good. It's a good thing he's got some back story during the audition rounds with his newborn child but that's only going to go so far.

3. Jordin Sparks - Sparks has a good voice and an open, peppy personality. The problem is vocally she works the same R&B territory as other, stronger contestants and she is not going to be able to out perky Haley Scarnato. Also, her youth will lead to the audience saying "She's young, she'll always have another chance." Her performance of Pat Benatar's "Heartbreaker" was a surprise, if she does more to define herself differently she may last longer.

4. Gina Clocksen - The rocker grrrl showed her true colors last week with a faithful rendition of Evanescence's "Call Me When You're Sober". But, as theme weeks come up will she adapt the music to her or adapt to the music? It will probably be the latter after a few weeks and the goth girl vote won't outlast the pop voters.

5. SanJaya Malakar - The Jon Stevens of this season will ride the preteen girl and Grandma vote past more talented competitors. Malakar has potential but has been too intimidated to give a decent performance. He's going to have to rely on his big smile, genuinely nice personality and Breck girl hair to continue.

6. Lakisha Jones - Jones' fiery performances and big soulful voice has given this season the few shots of oomph it's needed (I heard last week's "I Have Nothing" in a different room that the TV so I only heard it and I liked her better than Whitney Houston). But, history will repeat itself and Jones will receive the Jennifer Hudson treatment with an early dismissal. It will be unfair, but it will probably happen.

7. Blake Lewis - the human beat box bit should run dry about now. Though Lewis has shown range with his effective rendition of Keane's "Somewhere Only We Know" the rest of his choices point in more of a reggae / trip hop direction. America's tolerance of those musical genres is limited (there's a reason you don't hear Jamiroqui or 311 anymore). At least there's hope that if they revive the Police Academy movies Lewis can replace the guy that makes sound effects with his mouth.

8. Haley Scarnato - Scarnato benefits from sticking to her own musical agenda: middle of the road balladry and Disneyfied pop. While her performances are competent, she has never wowed me. I think she will go farther than her talent justifies due to her ability to carve a MOR niche amid her predominantly R & B competition.

9. Brandon Rogers - A great voice that almost merits the smugness that goes with it, Roger's problem is figuring out what to do with it. His song choices have been scatter shot as if he's experimenting with different approaches ("Time After Time" anybody?). His looks and voice will take him towards the top but viewers will lose their patience with his lack of direction when it becomes crunch time.

10. Stephanie Edwards - She's been accused of copycat vocals of whomever she's covered, but of the remaining performers only Edwards has the ego needed to truly command the stage. Her attitude is "All eyes on me" and she makes the most out of her strong yet pliable voice. Like Rogers, her lack of musical identity will make her adaptable but catch up with her in the end.

11. Chris Richardson - I read one website refer to him as "Justin Timberfake". That pretty much sums it up because I don't see what the big deal is about this guy. He's earned pretty strong support from the judges and audience so far which means it's me that's missing the point. I expect Richardson to "Rock Your Body" all the way to the runner up position.

12. Melinda Doolittle - That leaves Gladys Knight, um, I mean Melinda Doolittle as the winner. Doolittle has a big voice and comes alive during performances in contrast to her shyness in interview segments. What really sets Doolittle apart is her vocal control, she has shown greater control over her instrument than most performers from any season. Of course, American Idol has a pattern of sending expected winners home (Latoya London, Chris Daughtry and Clay Aiken to name a few) and that could become Doolittle's undoing.

Well, place your bets because the finals get underway starting Tuesday. The lack of a dominating performer should make this horse race interesting but expect Taylor Hicks like sales for the winner.

On a more random note, lately I've been hearing a lot of the Black Keys' Rubber Factory (2004) album in commercials. Rubber Factory is a strong album of modern blues rock done in a sort of White Stripes format (they're a duo conisisting of a singer/guitarist and a drummer). They differ from the Stripes in that they tilt towards a classic rock direction. I first heard them on a Paste magazine sampler for the song "10 AM Automatic". I loved that song, with it's Bad Company style blues stomp in the verse and Hendrix style slyness in the chorus. The CD is uniformly good and I began to hear "The Desperate Man" in Victoria Secret's commercials. Recently, I heard "Girl Is On My Mind" in another Victoria Secret's commercial and the slow beat of "When The Lights Go Down" in a commercial for Black Snake Moan. If you like classic rock and want to hear a fresh take on it, I recommend this disc.